WFA FireRisk Data Outputs

Asset risk metrics are the calculated consequences for asset-based ignition locations. This includes overhead distribution conductors, transmission lines, and other equipment locations. To calculate risk for each asset, a fire spread prediction is simulated using the asset location as the ignition point(s).

Since the spread of a fire can change greatly for different ignition locations, it is important that ignition points exist at regular intervals along all assets with overhead features. Each night a new weather forecast is created by the system and is used to run eight-hour fire spread predictions from each of the ignition points. At each ignition point and ignition time, the environmental conditions are all known - moisture content, wind speed and direction, fuel types, and topography. These ignitions occur every three hours extending through the forecast horizon, providing risk updates for every three hours for the extent of the forecast. The wildfire simulation is then used to calculate and summarize the fire size, impacts, and consequences given the eight-hour duration. 

Note: Use of a consistent duration for each simulation allows for consistent interpretation of outputs and is noted that suppression efforts are neglected in these results.