Probabilistic Mode

Selecting Probabilistic from the Simulation Mode menu will expand the bottom of the FireSim panel to include Probabilistic inputs.

Probabilistic mode provides the ability to adjust variability on four inputs:

• Wind Direction (degrees)

• Wind Speed (mph)

• 1hr Fuel Moisture (%)

• Live Woody & Herbaceous Fuel Moisture (%)

A range of acceptable values is displayed in each field. Key in values for the inputs you would like to use and set the others to zero.

Probabilistic mode uses a Monte Carlo method to run fifty simulations using the input data and will overlay all simulation outputs together to create a probabilistic surface.

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The legend at the bottom of the results panel shows that 80% or more of the simulations impact the area in red. 60% of the simulations will impact the area in orange, 40% for green, 20% for blue, etc, given the variables entered.