Data Outputs
In FireRisk, prediction impacts are computed based on the final perimeter of the 8-hr unsuppressed fire simulation.
The following impacts are calculated:
Note: The "expected" terminology originates from the statistical expectation which is the probability of an event multiplied by its consequence. All the expected risk metrics are calculated with this methodology of POF * consequence.
Fire Size Potential - Total simulation size in acres. The Fire Size Potential represents the actual simulated acreage of a fire based on the local fuels, weather, and terrain starting from an ignition at a specific location and time.
Expected Fire Size Potential - The product of the daily probability of fault (POF) and the hourly fire size potential. The purpose of this layer is to highlight the assets that are in an elevated state of both outage potential and consequences if a fire were to occur.
Population Impacted - Total population impacted by the simulation footprint.
Expected Pop Impacted - Product of the daily probability of fault (POF) and the hourly simulated population impacts. The purpose of this layer is to highlight the assets that are in an elevated state of outage potential and consequences if a fire were to occur.
Buildings Threatened - Total number of buildings threatened by the simulation footprint.
Estimated Buildings Destroyed - Estimated number of buildings destroyed for each simulation, derived using Building Loss Factor (BLF) data assigned to each building.
Expected Estimated Buildings Destroyed - Product of the daily probability of fault (POF) and the hourly estimated buildings destroyed. The purpose of this layer is to highlight the assets that are in an elevated state of outage potential and consequences if a fire were to occur.
Fire Potential Index - The Fire Potential Index (FPI) quantitatively estimates the fire activity potential territory-wide and leverages hourly 1km weather data and a remote-sensed daily fire occurrence dataset (from 2012 to present) to train a machine learning model to predict potential fire activity across the landscape. This model quantifies non-linearities between, weather, fuel and topography, and fire growth. We analyzed the FPI performance through verification of results with more than 10+ years of FPI data and a team of experts in fire science daily conduct validation of the index with past major fires. These categories represent the percentile of the FPI index within the domain (see example in the following table):
Some customers have incorporated their proprietary FPI for use in their Technosylva products.
Fire Behavior Index - The Fire Behavior Index (FBI) is computed using the average Flame Length and Rate of Spread on the fire front during the whole duration of the fire (the 8-hr unsuppressed fire simulation). It is calculated based on the Rate of Spread of the fire in chains per hour (80 ch/hr = 1 mi/hr), and Flame Length in ft. These values have a direct relation to suppression activities, as the commonly used Hauling Chart summarizes. Essentially it details how large and fast-moving the flames are over the burn duration.
The different values of FBI vary from 1 (Low) to 5 (Extreme) as shown in the next table.
FBI Class | Description | |
1 | LOW | Fire will burn and will spread however it presents very little resistance to control and direct attack with firefighters is possible |
2 | MODERATE | Fire spreads rapidly presenting moderate resistance to control but can be countered with direct attack by firefighters |
3 | ACTIVE | Fire spreads very rapidly presenting substantial resistance to control. Direct attack with firefighters must be supplemented with equipment and/or air support. |
4 | VERY ACTIVE | Fire spreads very rapidly presenting extreme resistance to control. Indirect attack may be effective. Safety of firefighters in the area becomes a concern |
5 | EXTREME | Fire spreads very rapidly presenting extreme resistance to control. Any form of attack will probably not be effective. Safety of firefighters in the area is of critical concern. |
Probability of Fault - The daily probability of fault (POF) represents the probability of having at least one sustained fault/outage on a circuit within a 24-hour period. This probability is calculated from a statistical model that is trained on historical weather data, historical outages, and asset information. The purpose of this layer is to highlight the circuits that have an elevated outage probability during a wind event.
Wind Speed - Forecasted maximum hourly wind speed across the circuit.
Wind Gust - Forecasted maximum hourly wind gust across the circuit.
Note: not all risk metrics will be available in your version.